By Staff Writer.
Quad leaders have met overnight in response to the invasion of Ukraine and its broader implications for the Indo-Pacific region. The US President and Prime Ministers of Japan, India, and Australia held a virtual meeting amid rising concerns China could make a similar move against Taiwan.
In a joint statement following the meeting, the four leaders “reaffirmed their commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific, in which the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states is respected, and countries are free from military, economic, and political coercion.”
While the world remains focused on Ukraine, there is growing alarm China could use the distraction to its advantage and step up its strategy to retake Taiwan.
“We’ve agreed that unilateral changes to the status quo with force like this should not be allowed in the Indo-Pacific region,” said Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida after the meeting.
Of the four Quad countries, Japan is located closest to China and its former breakaway province of Taiwan. Japan is arguably the best-placed Quad member to tap into the Taiwan Strait political and military cross currents.
China is watching Russia’s progress in Ukraine closely, reportedly eyeing the invasion as a template for what to do (or what not to do) in an invasion of Taiwan. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a rare in-person meeting in February. After the meeting, they issued a now-notorious communique condemning NATO and vowed to work closely together in the future.
Rory Medcalf, Head of the National Security College (NSC) at the Australian National University, says the quad will not tolerate a replay of what’s going on in Europe in the Indo-Pacific region. While he agrees a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is a serious medium to long-term threat, Professor Medcalf says events unfolding in Ukraine will give China pause for thought.
“The conflict in Ukraine and the resistance put up will delay the day China moves against Taiwan,” Professor Medcalf told ABC Radio on Friday. “The catastrophe we see in Ukraine and the international pressure being put on Russia … it’s unlikely China thought it would get this bad. It’s hard to seize a country violently in this day and age.”
Meanwhile, the Quad leaders face criticism following the overnight meeting for failing to jointly condemn the Russian invasion. Quad member India was one of the few countries that abstained from voting to condemn the invasion at the UN General Assembly this week.
The US, Japan, and Australia have all publicly condemned the invasion. But India has long-standing ties with Russia from where it sources many of its weapons, including a Russian-made S-400 air defence system.
With China increasingly militarily active along its 3,488-kilometre border with India, Russian armaments now play an essential role in India’s defence strategy.
Condemning Russia could jeopardise that supply, something India appears loathe to do. Instead, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi used the Quad meeting to stress dialogue and diplomacy concerning Ukraine.
The four Quad leaders have agreed to meet in person in Tokyo in the coming months.
