PIMCO has published its outlook on the global economy and markets for the next 6-12 months.
In Cyclical Outlook: The Beginning of the End?, the authors write that the synchronized global expansion will almost certainly enter its 10th year this June and “is unlikely to derail over the our cyclical six- to 12-month horizon.”
They add:
“Compared with our December forecasts, we now foresee marginally higher 2018 GDP growth in the U.S., eurozone, U.K. and China, while we lowered our estimates for Mexico and India. On net, this should leave the world economy in the 3.0% to 3.5% growth channel for 2018 that we envisaged in December, compared with an outcome for 2017 in the middle of the same range…
“It is important to note that both our benign growth and inflation forecasts are broadly in line with consensus and appear to be baked into asset prices. This implies that there may be little room for error if economic growth would disappoint on the downside or inflation on the upside – another reason for relatively cautious portfolio positioning.”
You can read the full report, which includes investment implications here.
