Alison Evans, senior Asia-Pacific analyst, IHS Markit
On 31 July North Korea fired multiple unidentified projectiles from the Hodo peninsula into the East Sea/Sea of Japan, following the 25 July launch of two new-type short-range ballistic missiles. North Korea has criticised the US for ‘breaking a promise’ by moving forward on scheduled semi-annual joint military exercises with South Korea in August. Notably on 30 July US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told reporters that working-level talks with North Korea had not yet resumed after the 30 June third summit between North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump. The White House and high-level officials down-played the launches’ threat to the US and its allies.
Significance: The launches do, however, highlight the security-interests gap between the US and its ally South Korea: following US National Security Advisor John Bolton’s two-day visit, South Korean media reported that the US planned to increase its demand for South Korean contributions to the stationing of US forces to USD5 billion in Q1 2020. This, and the downplaying of North Korea’s provocative weapons demonstrations, modestly raise the prospect that Trump will announce a reduction in troops on the peninsula, a stated aim (which China and North Korea would likely view as in their national security interests.) IHS Markit continues to assess that talks and summits between North Korea and the US are positive indicators for a reduction in the risk of interstate war, but do not indicate a shift in the conflicting motivations and strategic interests of the countries involved. Accordingly, North Korea is likely to increase the frequency and intensity of its belligerent rhetoric and lower-level weapons demonstrations. If North Korea retracts its self-imposed moratorium on the testing of inter-continental ballistic missiles, or clearly demonstrates its continuing production of nuclear weapons, then the US is likely to delay or withdraw from any officials or unofficial talks. If, however, high-level US officials make specific statements about security assurances, such as a non-aggression pact, that would further reduce the risk of conflict.
Missile tests designed to keep up pressure on talks with the US
Karl Dewey, Senior Analyst, Jane’s by IHS Markit
Missile tests are designed to keep up pressure on talks with the US, and demonstrate that from Pyongyang’s perspective nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. Although working-level talks have been delayed a little, and no date set, the tests are also likely designed to increase North Korea’s leverage in these talks. As such, they underscore the importance and fragility of Pyongyang’s ‘self-restraint’.
Such tests also signal to domestic audiences that Pyongyang is able to maintain its military capabilities during talks.
