Karl Dewey, CBRN analyst, Jane’s by IHS Markit
- On 28 July 2017, North Korea conducted another successful test of the Hwasong-14 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
- According to the official North Korean statement, the Hwasong-14 test covered a range of 998 km, after flying for 47 minutes and 12 seconds.
- From the subsequent footage, the missile appears to be in the same configuration as the Hwasong-14 previously on 4 July, and with an estimated 10,000 km range reinforces North Korean claims that it can reach the US mainland.
Comment
Despite the apparent success of the Hwasong-14, considerable reservations about its payload mean there is still uncertainty over the missile’s true range. This is because if North Korea used a lighter warhead for this test, it would allow the missile to travel further than it would with a heavier payload. Nonetheless, the expected capability to hit the contiguous US represents another notable milestone in North Korean efforts to build a credible nuclear deterrent against attack.
Any military effort to undermine the North Korean nuclear or missile programme is complicated by North Korea’s conventional- and chemical-weapons forces. These also threaten Seoul and are harder to detect, hence the damage they could cause also acts to deter excessive military action.
Although US President Trump has blamed the Chinese for not doing enough to prevent North Korea’s nuclear development, ultimately it remains in Beijing’s interests to support North Korea economically because a unified peninsular under Seoul’s leadership create a major US ally on China’s doorstep.
