21 October 2015
Libya
The Unity Government agreement proposed by the UN has been rejected by the Official Government in Tobruk and their rivals in Tripoli. While both parties have stated they are willing to continue with negotiations, Bernardino Leon, the UN special envoy, stated that this was the final version and there would be no further alterations.
Ben Stewart, General Manager at leading maritime security company MAST (Singapore), said: “It is not clear what will happen next. Sanctions are now a possibility given that they have been threatened by the UN and the EU. Aside from being a satisfyingly punitive measure, it is difficult to see what benefit they would bring.
“The most likely outcome is that sanctions will further weaken the two Libyan Governments, making them even less effective than they are now. Sanctions may indeed play into the hands of ISIS giving them the opportunity to gain strength and increase their foothold in Libya.”
Stewart added: “Against this backdrop of disunity, it is unlikely there will be any let up in the amount of migrant traffic using Libya as a stepping off point into the European Union for the foreseeable future.”
Yemen
Despite the support of the Saudi led coalition, pro-Government forces have reportedly lost ground to the Houthi Rebels in the Bayda province of southern Yemen. Further to the west, pro-Government forces and their allies have been continuing the fighting in Tiaz and targeting the port town of Mocha.
Stewart said: “Mocha, as the closest port in Houthi held Yemen to Somalia, is the primary access point for Houthi supplies being smuggled in from Somalia. The capture of Mocha will permit the pro-Government Forces to increase their strangle hold on Houthi supply lines.”
President Hadi has agreed to enter peace talks with General Saleh and the Houthi Rebels. Local sources are still reporting that a division of the country into North and South Yemen is a potential option.
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