China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) displayed a broad cross section of its equipment, including several systems not previously shown in public, in a large-scale military parade held on 1 October to mark the 70th anniversary of the founding of People’s Republic of China.
What’s the significance?
- After the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949 the PLA mounted military parades on China’s National Day each year until 1959. Subsequent parades were held in 1984, 1999 and 2009. In the last decade there have been two further large-scale parades: in September 2015 a military parade was held in Beijing to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the victory of the ‘War of resistance against Japan’, and in July 2017 a parade was held at the Zhurihe training facility in Inner Mongolia to mark the 90th anniversary of the founding of the PLA.
- Military parades are significant events for benchmarking the modernisation of China’s armed forces, not only because of the appearance of new equipment but also because of the high proportion of weaponry that is modern and recently brought into service. Notwithstanding the increasing frequency of parades, a greater number of significant new systems were on public display at the 2019 National Day event than previously, reflecting the pace of change that is closing the gap between China’s armed forces and, in particular, those of the United States.
- At a press briefing on 24 September, officials commented that the parade “would not disappoint” either in terms of scale or advanced weaponry on display. The justification of such a remark is clear in the number and capabilities of the new systems displayed.
- The most significant weapon system displayed was probably the DF-17, given that it is the first hypersonic glide vehicle in service in any country. The pace of transformation of China’s armed forces has been largely dependent upon taking designs and technology from other countries and adapting or enhancing them for Chinese requirements.
- This has enabled China to close the gap with other advanced militaries far more rapidly than through its own research: described by the Chinese as leap-frog development. However, the introduction of the DF-17 with its HGV shows that China is now at the point of leading rather than following technological developments.
- Also noteworthy is that very little information has appeared in open sources of several of the systems on show.
The DF-17: a missile carrying an HGV
A strategic missile making its first appearance was the DF-17, the most significant feature of which is that its payload is a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV). The missile was shown slightly raised from its transport position, showing the HGV mated to the carrier rocket, which is believed to be a development of the DF-16 intermediate-range ballistic missile.
No information is available on whether the HGV carries an explosive warhead, although it is likely that the DF-17 is configured as a conventional munition with its destructive effect derived from the kinetic energy of the HGV. The HGV will increase the range at which targets can be engaged. With 16 missiles displayed, each carried on a TEL, this missile is very evidently in-service.
The PLA Rocket Force also paraded another key ballistic missile system, the DF-26, which is designed to be capable of striking large naval targets at sea, specifically aircraft carriers. The missile was included in the 2015 parade so it is not new, but only China is confirmed to have anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBM) in its armoury, including the shorter-range DF-21D. It is difficult to validate from open sources the effectiveness of ASBMs against moving targets. Several ASBMs were reportedly test-fired in the vicinity of the Spratly Islands in June 2019, but no evidence had emerged that a moving target was engaged.
The recent Chinese parade included a fly-past, which included all the PLA Air Force’s modern aircraft such as the J-20 stealthy combat aircraft and Y-20 heavy-lift transport aircraft as well as a recent variant of the Xian H-6 heavy bomber. This H-6N variant, which was shown carrying CJ-10K/KD-20 air-launched cruise missiles, now incorporates an in-flight refuelling probe that will boost the platform’s combat radius.
The road-mobile DF-41 ICBM
The most potent weapon not previously displayed was the DF-41 road-mobile, inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM), sixteen units of which were shown carried on their transporter-erector-launchers (TELs). The solid-fuelled DF-41 has a comparable range to the older liquid-fuelled DF-5B ICBM that was also on display, enabling it to reach potential targets throughout the continental United States with multiple independently targeted re-entry vehicles (MIRVs).
The DF-41’s mobility, however, makes it less vulnerable to elimination in a first strike than the silo-based DF-5 missile.
China also displayed the DF-31AG ICBM. Although previously shown at the 2017 military parade at the Zhurihe military training facility in Inner Mongolia, the DF-31AG is nonetheless a relatively new variant of the DF-31 ICBM. The missile, which has an estimated range of more than 11,000 km, was shown carried on a TEL with improved mobility.
