Editors Desk
Chris Cubbage
APSM Executive Editor
Dear Readers,
In this issue of our bi-monthly e-magazine we feature an interview with Australian Federal Police Assistant Commissioner, Mandy Newton, National Manager for the International Deployment Group, with supporting articles addressing cyber supported terrorism, building an effective security program in a custodial setting, Australia’s licencing framework for security professionals and a year in review with our Ambassador interviews, Women in Security and CCTV Feature edition. Plus a whole lot more.
The United States and Australian Alliance – Has Australia become a US outpost?
“In this century, the Asia-Pacific will be at the forefront of global economic growth and rising power. That doesn’t mean that the future belongs to Asia. This century may not belong to any one country or any one region. In five years, Asia will still represent only about one third of global Gross Domestic Product. What we can say is that economic weight and strategic influence are becoming more dispersed. Some of the poles of power this century will be outside Asia. But – and this is important – the size and growth rates of Asia’s population means the region is likely to be unique in the scale of its economic growth. In this sense, demography is destiny. The size of population suggests that what will happen in Asia will be unique… Countries across our region – including China and Australia – have unquestionably been beneficiaries of the peace and stability that the US presence in Asia since the Pacific War has supported. We see American engagement with our region as underpinning and supporting an international rules-based system.” Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs, Senator the Hon Bob Carr, CSIS Banyan Tree Leadership Forum, Washington D.C., USA, 25 April 2012.
“We met today in the city of Perth – Australia’s Indian Ocean capital – to reaffirm the value of the Australia-US Alliance in helping to shape the security and prosperity of the Asia Pacific, while also contributing to global security, good governance and the rule of law.” AUSMIN 2012 Joint Communiqué, 14 November 2012
Population growth is highest in the world’s poorest nations, with many of these in Asia, in particular South East Asia. In 2011, the world’s population passed seven billion, and it is projected to reach nine billion by 2050. As highlighted by Australia’s Foreign Minister in the quote above, population on this scale is not only unique, but unprecedented. Therefore it is unpredictable and with reference to human history, will inevitably result in conflict. Throughout 2012 there has been reaffirmations made by the United States and Australia on their alliance and their focus on shaping the security of the Asia Pacific.
Importantly, the US and Australian alliance has been appropriately questioned by former Australian Prime Minister Paul Keating who said in November, “We have rolled back into an easy accommodation with the foreign policy objectives of the United States. More latterly, our respect for the foreign policy objectives of the United States has superimposed itself on what should otherwise be the foreign policy objectives of Australia.
This discourse leads to one conclusion: we will always be best being ourselves, exercising our ingenuity where it matters most, where we are most relevant, where our interests mostly coalesce and that is in the neighbourhood – the place we live. Recognising that our general membership of ‘the West’ was most relevant to us while ever ‘the West’ was the dominant global grouping – but that that period is now passing. What is not passing and what will not pass is our geopolitical positioning. The immutability of our need to successfully treat with and adapt to the neighbourhood – a neighbourhood which, save for New Zealand, is completely non-Western.
The secular change in the diminished growth potential of the West vis-a-vis that of Asia and South Asia and the ‘catch up’ in productivity and living standards going on there will mean that, from now on, our security linkages with ‘the West’ will seem more incongruous than during the post-War years. While we will always have a close relationship with the United States based on our shared history and our similar cultures, it is obvious that the right organising principle for our security is to be integral to the region – to be part of it rather than insulating ourselves from it, hanging on in barely requited faith, to attenuated linkages with the relatively declining West.
From now on we have to concentrate on where we can be effective and where we can make the greatest difference. I believe that is fundamentally in South East Asia. South East Asia occupies the fulcrum between South West Asia and North East Asia; the fortunes of the Indian Ocean and the sub-continent vis-a-vis those of continental Asia, China and the western Pacific. In a geopolitical sense, this region is a place of amity, a zone of peace and cooperation, perched between the two most populous neighbourhoods on earth: broadly, Pakistan and India and their ocean, and China and Japan and their ocean.
Not to measure up to this challenge would be to run the risk of being seen as a derivative power, perpetually in search of a strategic guarantor, a Western outpost, seemingly unable to confidently make its own way in the world. Surely we have reached the point where we have to turn away from that scenario, recognise the realities of our geography and strike out on our own.” Source http://news.blogs.slv.vic.gov.au/2012/11/15/the-2012-keith-murdoch-oration-delivered-by-the-honourable-paul-keating-former-prime-minister/
For those who may not have been aware of Paul Keating’s speech at the Keith Murdoch Oration I trust it was worthwhile highlighting, if not for our non-Australian readers. Comments and new perspectives are most welcome.
Lucky twenty 13!! What are our key security risks in the year ahead?
As we reflect on what has been a defining year, with US and Chinese elections passed, the next twelve months are unlikely to be any less intense, if not increasingly ominous, in particular in the Middle East. Below is some existing security related issues that may not only impact our region but also significantly affect the world. Naturally we hope these conflicts and issues dissipate before intensifying. With some probability, this will be unlikely for a number of them.
Key regional security issues in APAC
• Pakistan/Afghanistan/Taliban conflict and related terrorism activity
• South China Sea islands dispute between China, Japan, Philippines, Taiwan
• Internal conflicts within India, Myanmar, Philippines, Indonesia and related terrorism and civil unrest
• North Korea unpredictability
Middle East security issues
• Syria’s civil war
• Egypt’s constitutional direction
• Israel’s stemming of an Iranian nuclear capability
• Israel and Palestinian conflict reigniting
International security trends
• Cyber crime and cyber warfare will continue to hit the headlines with potential for catastrophic cyber events, most likely to coincide with real war activities.
• Global Warming continues to see an escalation in the extremities of climatic events
Stay tuned with us as we continue to explore, educate, entertain and most importantly, engage. I look forward to hearing from you and encourage to connect with us and retain My Security Media as your personal professional library, willing to listen and accessible anytime, anywhere.
Yours sincerely,
Chris Cubbage
APSM Executive Editor
NEXT ISSUE HIGHLIGHTS
• Feature interview with Greg Moriarty, Australia’s Ambassador to Indonesia.
• Cyber Security in an ever evolving world
• ‘Security verses Safety’ Feature
• Cross border licensing issues in Australia
