Institute of Terrorism Research and Response 13 September 2012 / 15:00 Targeted Actionable Monitoring Center (TAM-C) of the Institute of Terrorism Research and Response
The following Alert is brought to you courtesy of the Targeted Actionable Monitoring Center of the Institute of Terrorism Research and Response
Intent: To confirm previous TAM-C Alerts identifying calls for attacks against the US assets in Sana’a and Cairo. To provide additional information on an increased risk in other areas.
Threat Classification: MODERATE (Level 3)
Justification: On 10 September 2012, TAM-C Arabic language researchers intercepted a communication from a jihadi source calling for action against the US embassy in Cairo. At that time, TAM-C Alerts noted that the original call for action denounced the US for its continued incarceration of Sheikh Omar Abdel-Rahman for his conviction related to terrorism.
On 12 September 2012, the TAM-C intercepted an Arabic language communication from jihadi sources calling for attacks upon the US Embassy in Sana’a, Yemen.
The TAM-C Alert dispatched to clients noted:
Will the lions of Yemen do what has been done in Egypt and Libya? Shall we not act while they curse our prophet? The Egyptian and Libyan people went wild and went out against the infidel US Embassy. So when will we hear that you attack the American Embassy in Sana’a. Does the US own you! Wake up and storm the American Embassy and burn its flag like our brothers in Egypt and Libya. Raise the Islamic flag. Wake up.
The above call for action was followed by a mob attack on the US embassy in Sana’a that was repulsed only through the use of deadly force.
TAM-C analysts have since identified Arabic language reports indicating that at least one person was killed in the defending of the embassy. Analysis: TAM-C analysts note that the attacks against US compounds have not been the result of popular spontaneous demonstrations of anger over the recently released movie trailer that is deemed to be insulting to the prophet Mohammed. The demonstrations are being motivated and called for in advance through international jihadist communications.
TAM-C analysts note that, although the release of an anti-Muslim video has clearly exacerbated the situation, significant pre-planned anti-American activity was already underway. Such activity is expected to continue in the near term. TAM-C analysts expect an increase in anti-American activity after Friday sermons.
Conclusion: TAM-C analysts note that the attacks against US compounds have not been the result of popular spontaneous demonstrations of anger over the recently released movie trailer that is deemed to be insulting to the prophet Mohammed.
The demonstrations are being motivated and called for in advance through international jihadist communications. TAM-C analysts note that, although the release of an anti-Muslim video has clearly exacerbated the situation, significant pre-planned anti-American activity was already underway.
Such activity is expected to continue in the near term. TAM-C analysts expect an increase in anti-American activity after Friday sermons. Timeline: Extended through 5 October 2012
Origin: TAM-C Middle East Desk
Threat Classifications:
LOW (Level 4) Available intelligence and recent events indicate that hostile elements currently have little capability or intent to take action against the target. It is assessed that, although it cannot be ruled out, an attack or action is unlikely to be mounted based on current available intelligence.
MODERATE (Level 3) Available intelligence and recent events indicate that hostile elements have the capability to take action against the target and that such action is within the adversary’s current intent. It is assessed that an attack or action is likely to be a priority and might well be mounted.
SEVERE (Level 2) Available intelligence and recent events indicate that hostile elements have an established capability and current intent to take action against the target and there is some additional information on the nature of the threat. It is assessed that an attack or action on the target is a priority and is likely to be mounted.
CRITICAL (Level 1) Available intelligence and recent events indicate that hostile elements with an established capability are actively planning to take action against the target within a matter of days (up to two weeks). An attack or action is expected imminently. Note to media and government: For more information and permission to publish, send an email with the title of the alert or brief in the subject line to operations@itrrintel.org Please include your name, title, and organization in your email. ________________________________________
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