Alison Evans, head of open source intelligence, IHS Markit
On 30 June, North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump met for the third time. The hour-long meeting, including South Korean President Moon Jae-in, was arranged “at quick notice” according to Trump, and took place at the Panmunjeom group of buildings that straddle the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) between North Korea and South Korea. Like Moon in April 2018, Trump stepped over the MDL and shook Kim’s hand, making him the first US president to stand on North Korean territory. The summit culminated in Trump inviting Kim to the US “when the time is right” and the three parties agreeing to further working-level talks.
This meeting followed Trump saying on 11 June that he had received a letter from Kim, and another meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping 20-21 June. The summit means further diplomacy is likely, importantly at the working-level. However, as before the Hanoi summit in February 2019, these are unlikely to result in substantial concessions – specifically on weapons by North Korea or sanctions by the US. If North Korea agrees to extend its self-imposed moratorium on inter-continental ballistic missile testing to other missiles, such as the new short-range missile tested in May, the US is likely to support South Korean efforts to expand social and economic exchange, or even offer some humanitarian support following poor harvests in North Korea.
